By Matt Busel, who built the apps, crates and game he writes about · every number links to its source and every dataset is downloadable (methods) · corrections · featured in Kirino, gamebiz, This Week in Rust, New Mobile Life, By-Press
Spray drone sales "fell 59%". FAA registrations rose 48%
On this page · 9 sections
Short answer: The American Spray Drone Coalition says US sales of new agricultural spray drones fell 59% from 2024 to 2025. We counted every spray drone in the FAA aircraft registry and got the opposite: new registrations from the four big spray makers went from 1,864 in 2024 to 2,763 in 2025, up 48%, and 2026 is already at 2,733 with two months left. Our read: the drones did not stop arriving. The paperwork caught up.
TL;DR: DJI Agras registrations barely moved: 1,552 in 2024, 1,473 in 2025 and 1,375 from January 1 to October 26 2026, a hair ahead of the same stretch of 2025 (1,359). Hylio, the Texas builder, went from 156 registrations in that stretch of 2025 to 610 in 2026, almost 4x. Chinese makers (DJI, EAVision, XAG) still took 78% of new spray drone registrations this year, so the "DJI block" moved share between Chinese brands far more than it moved the market to US factories.
Key numbers
| What | Number | Source, checked Oct 27 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Spray drone sales change, 2024 to 2025 (coalition survey) | -59% | DroneXL on the ASDC survey |
| New FAA registrations, DJI + XAG + EAVision + Hylio, 2024 / 2025 | 1,864 / 2,763 (+48%) | FAA registry, our count |
| Same four makers, Jan 1 to Oct 26 2026 | 2,733 | FAA registry, our count |
| DJI Agras new registrations 2024 / 2025 / 2026 YTD | 1,552 / 1,473 / 1,375 | FAA registry, our count |
| Hylio, Jan 1 to Oct 26: 2025 vs 2026 | 156 vs 610 | FAA registry, our count |
| Chinese makers' share of 2026 registrations | 78% | FAA registry, our count |
| DJI Agras aircraft still on the active registry | 5,013 | FAA registry, our count |
The registry does not show a 59% crash
Every spray drone heavier than 55 pounds needs an N-number, the same registration a Cessna carries. The FAA publishes the whole registry as a free download every night, including aircraft that were later deregistered.
We pulled the October 26 2026 file, matched every aircraft model built by DJI (Agras line), XAG, EAVision and Hylio, removed duplicate serial numbers, and dated each drone by its first certificate. That is 2,763 new spray drones in 2025, against 1,864 in 2024.
The coalition's number comes from a survey of sellers, reported by DroneXL on October 21. It is being used in Washington right now to argue for an FCC carve-out for agricultural operators. The federal record points the other way.
DJI never fell off the cliff
The story everyone tells: US Customs held DJI shipments, so farmers could not get Agras drones. The registry shows a flat line instead. DJI Agras registrations were 1,552 in 2024, 1,473 in 2025 (down 5%), and 1,375 in 2026 through October 26, slightly above the 1,359 of the same window last year.
The models changed. The T40 and T50 carried 2024 and 2025; the T100 has 774 registrations already. Farmers bought the bigger machine.
Follow the money: who actually won the "DJI block"
Two other Chinese brands. EAVision went from zero registrations to 535 in 2025 and 527 so far in 2026. XAG went from 222 in 2024 to 491 in 2025. Coverage frames them as the winners, and the registry agrees.
The one American name with real volume is Hylio of Richmond, Texas: 90 in 2024, 264 in 2025 and 610 in 2026 so far. That is the only maker on our list growing fast this year. It is still under a quarter of the market.
So why do the two numbers disagree?
Our best explanation, labelled as ours: a large share of spray drones sold in 2024 were never registered at all. A survey of sales and a count of N-numbers only match if every buyer files. As the FAA leaned on Part 137 operators (the agency counted 1,710 approved spray operators in 2025, up 58%, per the same DroneXL report), registration caught up with the fleet.
If that is right, the "sales fell 59%" figure measures dealer pain, not how many drones are flying over US fields. Nobody has proven it yet, but the federal record is the only count in this fight anyone can audit, and it shows growth.
How we counted, so you can check us
The FAA's drone registration page sends anything over 55 pounds to the aircraft registry instead of the hobby DroneZone. A loaded Agras T40, T50 or T100 is far over that line, so every legal one has an N-number.
The nightly releasable aircraft download holds three files we used. ACFTREF maps model codes to maker and model. MASTER lists every aircraft registered today. DEREG lists every aircraft that has left the registry, with its original certificate date.
- We picked every model code whose maker or model names DJI Agras (T10 through T100, MG-1), XAG, EAVision or Hylio.
- We joined those codes to MASTER and DEREG, so drones that crashed, were sold abroad or expired still count in the year they were first registered.
- We kept one row per serial number and model, using the earliest certificate date, so a re-registration is not counted twice.
- We grouped by maker and certificate year. For a fair 2026 comparison we also cut every year at October 26.
Two limits, stated plainly. Registration is not a sale: a drone bought in December can be registered in March. And our four makers are not the whole market, but they are the four names the coalition itself puts at the center of this fight.
Neither limit can turn +48% into -59%. A one-quarter lag moves a few hundred drones between years. It does not erase 900.
Why this matters beyond farms
Spray drones are the first heavy autonomous aircraft that ordinary businesses buy by the thousand. Cheaper spraying means fewer ground rigs crushing crops, less chemical drift and work done on fields too wet for tractors. Every policy fight about them, tariffs, customs holds, FCC lists, is a fight over how fast that capability spreads.
That fight should run on a number anyone can audit. A sales survey from an interested coalition is a claim. A nightly federal file is a receipt.
What this means for you
If you sell, insure, finance or build for spray operators: plan on a market that grew, not one that halved. Download our maker-by-year CSV, check it against the FAA file yourself, and rerun it monthly; the registry updates every night. If you lobby or report on the FCC carve-out, cite both numbers. Our Zipline registry count shows the same file reshaping delivery, and more data pieces live on /news/ and AI industry.
Want this kept current on the companies you care about (DJI dealers, Hylio, ag co-ops)? Company Watch tracks federal contracts, filings and lobbying monthly; we keep fixing it at no extra cost until it does what it promises.
Sources
- FAA, Releasable Aircraft Registry database (MASTER, DEREG, ACFTREF), file dated Oct 26 2026, downloaded Oct 27 2026
- FAA, Releasable aircraft download page, checked Oct 27 2026
- FAA, How to register your drone (over 55 lbs goes to the aircraft registry), checked Oct 27 2026
- DroneXL, spray drone sales fell 59 percent (ASDC survey, FCC Part 137 carve-out), Oct 21 2026
- Tensorust, data.csv and dji_agras_monthly.csv, Oct 27 2026
First published here on tensorust.com on Oct 27, 2026. Related: News.
Up next
More on AI industryAmazon caps 41 data centers just under the EPA polluter lineEPA data: 165 of 424 active data centers hold air permits capped at 80%+ of the major-polluter line. Amazon has 41 of 59. Fines ever: $570,793.Read it next →Cite this
Free to cite and reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back. How it was collected: methods. Spotted an error? Corrections.
Did this answer your question?
Get the next one by email.
What my AI agents tried this week, with the real numbers: what worked, what flopped, what made money. One email when there is something worth reading.
No spam, never sold. Every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
What are people saying about this? Read and post on The Floor →
More: the author, related reading, share this, a free game
Try it yourself · Following AI?
Check what the models really cost
71 API prices, each copied from the provider page with the date, plus every change.
In The Manual: on this topic
Explainers answer one question, short answer first. Guides walk you through it step by step.
- Explainer · AI, LLMs and agentsWhat is the KV cache in an LLM, in plain English?
- Guide · Money and the economyHow to search USAspending.gov for any company's federal contracts (and catch the resellers)
- Explainer · Money and the economyWhat is an IPO lock-up expiration, and why do stocks drop around it?
- Explainer · Money and the economyWhat is enhanced geothermal, and how is it different from regular geothermal?
Read next
- Story chapters · Oct 27, 2026 · 5 min readAmazon caps 41 data centers just under the EPA polluter line
- AI · Oct 27, 2026 · 6 min readZipline now has more FAA aircraft than United: 3,077 to 1,219
- Story chapters · Oct 27, 2026 · 6 min readCar software recalls: 32M cars sent to the dealer for a code fix
.jpg){kind=link}