Midterm odds: Democrats 91% for the House, but money is losing races

Short answer: Betting markets give Democrats about a 91% chance to take the House on Nov 3 (Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 90.6% on Oct 27 2026). But in 4 of the 9 closest races we joined to FEC filings, the candidate with the bigger war chest is the underdog. Every one of those four is a Democrat. Lauren Boebert has been outraised 11 to 1 and the market still makes her a 68% favorite.

TL;DR: Democrats in CO-04, VA-05, MN-01 and AL-02 raised $23.7M combined against $8.1M for their Republican opponents, and Kalshi prices all four Democrats at 37% or less. In the other five close races, the Republican leads both the money and the odds. All six Republican incumbents in these nine races voted Aye on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and the market is betting that vote is not what sinks them.

Key numbers

What	Number	Source, checked Oct 27 2026
Democrats win the House (Polymarket)	91.5%, $13.6M traded	Polymarket
Democrats win the House (Kalshi CONTROLH-2026-D)	90.6%	Kalshi
Democrats win the Senate (Kalshi / Polymarket)	65% / 65.5%	Kalshi
House race markets Kalshi lists	351 districts	Kalshi KXHOUSERACE
Close races where the money leader is the underdog	4 of 9	FEC + Kalshi
Laubacher (D) vs Boebert (R) raised, CO-04	$13.70M vs $1.23M	FEC, through Oct 14
Boebert's odds to win anyway	68%	Kalshi
Republicans voting Aye on H.R. 1 final passage	218 of 220	House roll 190

The House is priced as done. The close races are not where Democrats win it

Real money says the House flips. Polymarket's "Democratic Party controls the House" market sat at 91.5 cents on Oct 27, with $13.6M traded. Kalshi's CONTROLH-2026-D contract traded at 90.6 cents the same night.

So we pulled every House race Kalshi lists (351 districts, 707 contracts, candidate by candidate) kept the 16 priced between 30% and 70%, and paired 9 of them with FEC reports before the FEC's free public key hit its rate limit. Here is the twist: in every one of those nine, Kalshi makes the Republican the favorite. Democrats are priced to win the chamber on seats the market already calls theirs, not on the knife fights.

Follow the money: $23.7M of Democratic cash is priced as a losing bet

We joined each race's market price to the FEC's candidate totals (money raised and cash on hand through Oct 14 2026). In five races the Republican leads both money and odds. In four, the money leader is the underdog, and it is a Democrat every time.

• CO-04: Eileen Laubacher raised $13.70M. Lauren Boebert raised $1.23M. That is 11.2x. Boebert is still a 68% favorite.
• VA-05: Tom Perriello raised $3.76M to John McGuire's $2.42M. McGuire is 65.5% to win.
• MN-01: Jake Johnson raised $3.51M to Rep. Brad Finstad's $2.77M. Finstad is 63.3%.
• AL-02: Rep. Shomari Figures raised $2.71M to Rhett Marques's $1.72M. Figures, an incumbent, is priced at 31.5%. A separate Polymarket contract on Alabama using a new congressional map trades near 52.5%, so traders are betting the lines, not the ads.

Add it up: $23.7M raised by Democrats in those four seats versus $8.1M by Republicans, and the market prices all four Democrats at 37% or less. Lowkey the most expensive way to lose a race in America.

CO-04 is the whole thesis in one district

Laubacher has $1.85M cash on hand to Boebert's $274K. Small-dollar national donors clearly love this race. The people betting real money on the district are not buying it.

Our read: a lot of the 2026 fundraising boom is rage donating into seats that were never in play, routed through national lists that profit on the volume. Consultants get paid either way. The donor gets a tweet. Nobody has proven the consultant class steers money into hopeless races on purpose, but the incentive is sitting right there in the FEC data, and it is the same story in both parties when the shoe is on the other foot.

The vote nobody is pricing: H.R. 1

Every Republican incumbent in our nine races (Boebert, Carey, Finstad, Murphy, Salazar, Wagner) voted Aye on the final passage of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, on July 3 2025 (roll call 190: Republicans 218 Aye, 2 No; Democrats 0 Aye, 212 No). Figures voted No. Not one Democrat voted for it.

The market's answer: it does not move these seats. Every Aye voter in our set is priced as a favorite. If the tax-and-spending vote was the knockout punch Democratic strategists sold to donors, the people with money on the line have not noticed. Our bet: Republicans lose the House on map changes and open seats elsewhere, not because voters in these districts punished the bill.

Where Republicans lead the money, they lead the odds too

The other five races line up the boring way. In NY-21, Stefanik's old seat, Anthony Constantino raised $17.06M to Blake Gendebien's $7.66M, the biggest haul in our set, and he is a 66.8% favorite. In NC-03, Rep. Greg Murphy out-raised Raymond Smith Jr. 7.9 to 1 and sits at 68.5%.

Ohio's 15th, Missouri's 2nd and Florida's 27th follow the same script: Mike Carey (3.1x), Ann Wagner (1.9x) and Maria Elvira Salazar (1.6x) lead in cash and in price. When the Republican has the money, the market agrees. When the Democrat has the money, the market shrugs. That asymmetry is the story donors are not being told.

Who wins, who loses

• Wins: Republicans who hold close seats while being outspent. They are the bench for 2028, and they are cheap to defend.
• Wins: Anyone who reads markets instead of fundraising emails. Odds update every minute; a "we're surging" email does not.
• Loses: Democratic donors in the four seats above, if the prices hold. That is $23.7M aimed at races priced at one-in-three or worse.
• Loses: The idea that money buys House seats. In this set, money and odds disagree almost half the time.

Not financial advice. Markets can be wrong, and a 32% underdog wins about one race in three. Polls close on Nov 3; check your state's official election site for when and where to vote.

What this means for you

Download the data (below): every race we checked with Kalshi odds, FEC money and the FEC link for each candidate, plus all 351 Kalshi House markets. Before you give to a campaign, put its race in that file. If it is already at 90%, or at 30% with an 11x money lead, your dollar is buying almost nothing. Put it where the price is near 50%.

For the full picture, read our Elon Musk midterm money breakdown, the prediction markets accuracy test and everything on politics and the news desk.

Want this kept current after Nov 3? Company Watch emails you when a company you follow lands a federal contract, files with the SEC or changes its lobbying, so you can see who gets paid by the new Congress. If it does not do what it promises, we keep fixing it at no extra cost until it does.

Sources

• Polymarket, 2026 House and Senate control and district markets, Oct 27 2026
• Kalshi, CONTROLH-2026 and CONTROLS-2026, Oct 27 2026
• Kalshi, KXHOUSERACE district markets (351 districts), Oct 27 2026
• FEC, candidate totals for the 2026 cycle, coverage through Oct 14 2026, Oct 27 2026
• Clerk of the House, roll call 190, H.R. 1, July 3 2025
• Clerk of the House, roll call 145, H.R. 1 first passage, May 22 2025