By Matt Busel, who built the apps, crates and game he writes about · every number links to its source and every dataset is downloadable (methods) · corrections · featured in Kirino, gamebiz, This Week in Rust, New Mobile Life, By-Press
US Antimony's Alaska find: $439M before costs. So is the stock
On this page · 10 sections
- Key numbers
- The headline number is gross, and the 8-K says so twice
- The market already priced it at gross, and then some
- Antimony itself fell 69%, and the report priced that in
- Follow the money: the Pentagon is the one steady buyer
- Revenue is shrinking while the spending runs hot
- Who wins, who loses
- Why this matters past one small-cap
- What this means for you
- Sources
Short answer: United States Antimony (NYSE: UAMY) filed a technical report on its Nolan Creek, Alaska property on Oct 26 2026 that puts the antimony and gold in the ground at $438.9M, before a single dollar of mining, trucking or processing cost. At $2.92 a share and 149.7M shares, the whole company trades at about $436M. The market is pricing UAMY at roughly the gross value of one deposit, which is either a bargain on a strategic supplier or a verdict that the rock is worth far less than the headline.
TL;DR: The 8-K values Nolan Creek's measured and indicated lode at $313.7M and inferred lode at $125.2M, priced at $8.30 per pound of antimony and $4,000 an ounce of gold. The stock has fallen 76% from its $12.01 April 2026 close while the Pentagon's Defense Logistics Agency has signed $57.3M of antimony metal orders with the company. Revenue went the other way: $7.93M in Q2 2026, down 25% from $10.53M a year earlier, with a $11.2M first-half loss and $22.8M of first-half capex.
Key numbers
| What | Number | Source, checked Oct 26 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Creek in-situ value, all classes | $438.9M | UAMY 8-K, Ex. 99.2 |
| Measured and indicated lode (antimony + gold) | $233.9M + $79.9M = $313.7M | UAMY 8-K, Ex. 99.2 |
| UAMY market cap | about $436M ($2.92 x 149.7M shares) | Yahoo price; 10-Q share count |
| Stock vs April 2026 peak | $12.01 to $2.92, down 76% | Yahoo Finance monthly closes |
| DLA antimony metal orders | $57.3M, 4 delivery orders | USAspending.gov |
| Antimony, Rotterdam | $18,300-19,000/t, vs $59,750 record | Fastmarkets, Oct 15 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $7.93M, down 25% y/y | SEC XBRL |
The headline number is gross, and the 8-K says so twice
The $438.9M figure is "in-situ" value: tonnes in the ground times today's metal price. The company's own table footnotes it "before mining, transporting and processing costs" and "before process recovery." That is not a reserve, not a net present value, and not cash flow.
Plain line on the jargon: a resource means geologists think the metal is there; a reserve means engineers have shown it can be mined at a profit. Nolan Creek has a resource. The report's own table of contents lists a mineral reserve section, but the press release puts no reserve number on it.
Roughly 175 miles north of Fairbanks, the ore has to come out of an old 570-foot adit, get hauled by truck in an Alaskan winter, and run through a flotation mill in Radersburg, Montana. Every one of those steps eats into the $439M.
The market already priced it at gross, and then some
Here is the strange part. At about $436M, UAMY trades for the gross in-ground value of one Alaska property. Everything else it owns, the Montana smelter, Mexican operations, the Bear River zeolite mine in Idaho and claims in Ontario, comes along at no extra charge.
Two readings fit the same number. Bulls see a strategic supplier priced like one rock. Bears see a market that has already marked Nolan Creek far below its headline after watching the stock run to $12.01 and back.
Antimony itself fell 69%, and the report priced that in
To its credit, the report did not use the peak. Its $8.30 a pound works out to about $18,300 a tonne, right on Fastmarkets' Oct 14 Rotterdam assessment of $18,300-19,000. The record was about $59,750 a tonne in June and July 2025, when China's export ban had buyers scrambling.
Fastmarkets says European prices have been flat since Sep 4 on "weak downstream demand and ample material" in warehouses. China's July 2026 move added 14 European companies to its control list instead of a blanket ban, and traders called it less disruptive than 2024. The panic premium is gone.
Follow the money: the Pentagon is the one steady buyer
The Defense Logistics Agency has signed four antimony metal delivery orders with UAMY under contract SP800025D0007: $9.95M in Sep 2025, $1.91M in Jan 2026, then $15.45M and $29.98M in June 2026. Total: $57.3M. That is more than all of UAMY's 2025 revenue of $39.3M.
Antimony goes into ammunition primers (antimony trisulfide), lead-acid batteries and flame retardants. The 8-K says the Alaska bulk sample is meant to prove the company can make trisulfide "meeting military specifications." Washington is the customer the whole plan is built around.
Revenue is shrinking while the spending runs hot
Here is where the story cracks. Q1 2026 revenue was $6.78M against $7.00M a year before. Q2 was $7.93M against $10.53M. The first half lost $11.2M and put $22.8M into property and equipment, almost all of 2025's $27.8M capex in six months.
Shares outstanding went from 143.4M in March to 149.7M in August. When a miner grows its share count while revenue falls, holders are paying for the build-out. The DLA orders exist on paper; the deliveries have not yet shown up as a revenue surge in the filings.
Who wins, who loses
- Wins: the Pentagon, which gets a domestic antimony source for small change next to a $57.3M order book; the mining contractor already underground; and UAMY shareholders if it works, since the company bought the claims at a January 2026 courthouse trustee sale for what its own chief engineer calls "such a nominal price."
- Loses: anyone who bought UAMY near $12 on the 2025 China-ban spike. The commodity they were betting on is down 69% and the stock is down 76%.
- Undecided: the bulk sample. About 1,000 tons are being mined now, with sales planned for November and December 2026. That shipment is the first hard number that turns "in-situ" into dollars.
Why this matters past one small-cap
Every critical-minerals headline this year looks like this one: a big gross number, a government buyer, and a long road between rock and revenue. The fix for supply chains that depend on one country is more mines in more places, and that only happens if builders can tell real progress from a press release. The way to tell is to read the footnotes, track the federal orders, and watch the quarterly revenue line. We do all three below; more in our news desk and the deep tech + money hub, with the long view in Frontiers.
What this means for you
If you hold or trade a critical-minerals name, ignore in-situ totals and watch three things: the next 10-Q revenue line (does the $57.3M DLA book show up?), the share count, and the Rotterdam price against the company's $8.30 assumption. The Nolan Creek bulk-sample sales in Nov-Dec 2026 are the first test.
Want that watching done for you? Company Watch tracks any company's new SEC filings, federal contracts and lobbying and tells you what changed. We keep fixing it at no extra cost until it does what it promises.
Not financial advice. Our numbers and our read, so you can check them.
Sources
- SEC, United States Antimony Corp Form 8-K and Nolan Creek S-K 1300 technical report, Oct 26 2026
- US Antimony press release, Ex. 99.2, Oct 21 2026 (filed Oct 26 2026)
- SEC XBRL company facts, revenue, net income, capex, shares, pulled Oct 26 2026
- USAspending.gov, DLA delivery orders SP800025F0009, SP800026F0004, SP800026F0028, SP800026F0030, pulled Oct 26 2026
- Fastmarkets, Sebastian Evelyn, "Europe's antimony market faces uncertainty after years of volatility", Oct 15 2026
- Yahoo Finance, UAMY monthly closes, pulled Oct 26 2026 (in our data.csv)
First published here on tensorust.com on Oct 26, 2026. Related: Tensorust News, Deep tech + money, Company Watch.
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